Germany ended decades of dependence on U.S. security guarantees, says U.S. analyst Josef Braml.
Chancellor Friedrich Merz declared in May that the Bundeswehr must become Europe’s strongest conventional army.
The government faces two immediate tasks: filling personnel gaps, possibly through new service, and modernizing equipment quickly.
Politico reported Berlin is preparing a procurement plan worth up to €83 billion.
Most contracts will go to European manufacturers, with only 8% reserved for U.S. suppliers.
Between September 2025 and December 2026, Germany intends to sign 154 major defense contracts.
Europe’s reliance on U.S. arms grew sharply, according to the Stockholm peace institute Sipri.
Imports from the United States, including Ukraine deliveries, more than tripled between 2020 and 2024 compared to the prior period.
During those years, U.S. exports to Europe rose from 13% to 35% of global totals.
European NATO members doubled imports, with two-thirds supplied by the U.S.
Germany increased its purchases by 334%, with 70% sourced from American firms.
U.S. global arms exports also grew, rising 21% in five years and expanding market share from 35% to 43%.
Berlin now champions a “Buy European” strategy.
Arms Dependence Raises Strategic Questions
Braml argues Europe bought U.S. weapons as “tribute” for protection no longer guaranteed.
He says Trump’s approach revealed the U.S. cannot be fully trusted.
Systems like Patriot batteries show the problem, as the U.S. restricted exports to prioritize domestic needs.
Germany still ordered American F-35 jets despite speculation about a Pentagon “kill switch.”
Officials denied such remote controls exist, but the jets’ stealth and advanced design made them irreplaceable.
The Bundeswehr confirmed no European equivalent exists yet.
Germany therefore continues U.S. purchases while voicing intent to build European capacity.
Christophe Gomart, ex-French intelligence chief, warned of hidden vulnerabilities but admitted alternatives remain limited.
Sipri’s Pieter Wezeman noted Europe invests in domestic industries, though U.S. defense ties remain deeply rooted.
Europe Faces a New Strategic Era
The Marshall Plan and NATO created long-standing bonds between Germany and America.
Since Trump’s return to power, Berlin has struggled to balance ties while pursuing autonomy.
Trump’s “America First” agenda pressed NATO states to spend more and buy U.S. arms.
He demanded defense budgets rise to 5% and tied aid to U.S. industry orders.
Braml insists sovereignty requires Europe to control spare parts and software, not depend on Washington.
Merz admitted during a White House visit that Germany remains bound to U.S. power “for a long time.”
Yet Braml warns Europe risks weakness if it fails to emerge as an independent pole in a multipolar world.
Patent data reinforces U.S. dominance: between 2015 and 2021, U.S. firms filed 18,000 defense patents, compared to fewer than 12,000 for the EU.
France and Germany trail far behind, highlighting Europe’s technological reliance.
Braml concludes bluntly: “Security is gone, Pax Americana is dead.”
Germany must assume responsibility for its defense swiftly or face vulnerability.
