Brazil’s Supreme Court ruled that former president Jair Bolsonaro attempted a coup to hold power after his 2022 defeat.
On Thursday, three out of five justices declared Bolsonaro guilty on five counts, establishing a majority conviction.
Justice Cármen Lúcia cast her guilty vote after Justice Luiz Fux had called for Bolsonaro’s acquittal one day earlier.
The panel still awaits one justice’s vote before finalizing the sentence, which could lock Bolsonaro away for decades.
Justice Alexandre de Moraes, overseeing the case, stated Bolsonaro led both a coup conspiracy and a criminal organisation.
Political Fallout and International Consequences
The conviction has deepened Brazil’s already polarized political climate, with supporters and opponents clashing in public demonstrations.
Some citizens have celebrated the ruling as accountability for a president accused of undermining democracy. Others rallied to defend Bolsonaro, demanding his acquittal and release from house arrest.
Observers predict further unrest as Bolsonaro’s loyalists prepare protests and lawmakers weigh how to shield their leader.
The case also carries international consequences. Former US President Donald Trump labeled the proceedings a “witch hunt,” defending Bolsonaro.
Washington has tied trade measures to Bolsonaro’s trial. Trump threatened a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports if proceedings continued.
Analysts warn the United States may escalate sanctions after sentencing, potentially straining fragile diplomatic ties with Brasília.
Bolsonaro’s Defence and Legal Strategy
Bolsonaro denied any wrongdoing and refused to attend hearings in person, sending his lawyers to represent him.
His defence team confirmed they will appeal the verdict to the full 11-member Supreme Court, aiming to overturn it.
Despite his conviction, Bolsonaro remains under house arrest for violating restrictions on political messaging imposed by Justice de Moraes.
The former president had already received a ban from holding office until 2030 in a separate case last year.
Bolsonaro’s Ongoing Political Influence
Bolsonaro retains influence in Brazilian politics, commanding loyalty from right-wing lawmakers and millions of supporters.
His three lawmaker sons continue rallying behind him, working to sustain his movement inside Congress.
Analysts expect Bolsonaro to handpick a successor capable of challenging President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the next election.
The conviction may push Bolsonaro’s allies in Congress to pursue amnesty measures to reduce or cancel his sentence.
Even as courts rule against him, Bolsonaro’s enduring popularity ensures his role as a central figure in Brazil’s future.
